My Methodology:

After spending much of the past 4 years developing and analyzing data in both the professional and collegiate football levels, I am confident projecting a @55% win rate moving forward.  Do the winning percentages seem low?  They do if you compare them to the 75% some touts in the unregulated world of sports handicapping claim. Those claims are false over the long term.  The problem is that there is no regulatory agency to keep these scams in check.  Many choose not to have their picks monitored by a respected sports monitor because they are less than confident in their projections. What you will review here is an honest account of what can be expected backed by historical research. 

Based on the predictability of the situations that I have researched and implemented, 55% is an achievable goal.  In fact at just (55%), substantial return on investment can be realized.  For example, if a bettor with an initial $10,000 bankroll plays at a fixed rate (an average of 4% bankroll per play) over the course of an average season (150 plays) and wins 55% of his bets, a 37% increase in bankroll is realized.   At a winning percentage of 60% the increase in bankroll is a staggering 96%.  Keep in mind that you need only win 52.4% of your bets to realize a profit at seasons end.  (Flat betting at 10% juice). 

My methodology is somewhat different than the average handicapper.  I utilize a database that contains just about every measure of quantifiable information that has been gathered since 1983 in the NFL, and 1988 in College Football.  I have been fortunate enough to have studied with a handicapper whom I consider to be the best that there is out there.  I have taken his insight as well as the insight and recommendations of several other professional sports bettors whom I greatly respect to develop my own model.  Through countless hours of research, I have developed league wide systems that have produced consistently winning seasons. 

When I mention a ‘system’ I am referring to a situation that a team finds itself in that has been shown to provide a number of winners greater than the number of losers at a statistically significant level.  For example, one of my college football systems says to play ON:

 An Away Underdog that lost its last game straight up by <=-10 points at home but won their 2 previous games before that.  With this situation we are playing on a team that is off an embarrassing loss at home last week and are looking to redeem themselves.  This situation is 65-33 for a Z-Factor of 3.23 since 1988.

In addition to the league wide systems, I utilize statistical match-up systems that look at how teams with a good passing game for example, match up with teams with a poor pass defense.  I also look at combinations of categories to gain an advantage.  I am able to quantify their respective success rates based on the historical data for the past 23 years in the NFL and the past 18 years in College Football.  I use the Z-Factor to determine significance here as well.  These systems look at every conceivable match up that I have determined has a predictive value. 

Also, I have developed a statistical model that I use to create a pointspread.  Typically, I would say that stat handicapping is a 50/50 endeavor at best.  Most handicappers use easily accessed public information.  The problem is that this is much of the same information that the oddsmakers are using to create a line.  In my opinion, it is very difficult to maintain an advantage utilizing this philosophy.  How oddmakers create a line is multifactorial but in part is based on public perception. What I look to do in beating the pointspread is determine the true strength of a team, essentially eliminating the public perception value that the oddsmakers attach to their line.  

The methods that I use provide a way to more accurately assess a team’s real strength relative to the weekly pointspread.   My stats database allows me to run numbers is a way that takes into account the strength of the opponents that they have played and incorporate it into the overall strength profile of a team.  Individual categories are analyzed and then incorporated into a final number for each team.   When matched up against the strength profile of another team, statistically meaningful differences appear between opening line and the line that my model generates.

In 2007 I will be using a combination of the value that my systems create for a team with the value created by the difference between my statistical model line and the actual pointspread.

The most important as well as most overlooked aspect of winning at betting sports is the concept of money management and discipline. The fact of the matter is that only between 2-3 % of bettors will win long term.  I will tell you that if you truly want to succeed at this, then you have to have strict money management control.  If you do not have it, do not ever expect to win at this in the long term.  It is as simple as that.  I have seen excellent handicappers with terrible money management skills lose.  This is the difference between a handicapper and a successful bettor.  The bettor will utilize superior handicapping skills in conjunction with a disciplined, methodical money management system and will look to make plays only where there is an advantage.  I recommend playing at between 3%-5% of bankroll.  95% of my plays will be for 3% of BR  and another roughly 4% will be 4% BR plays.  Only around 1% of my plays will be 5% bankroll plays.   I play it very conservatively and I recommend that you do the same.  Set up a bankroll at the beginning of the season that you can live with.  This is money that if it were gone would not impact your lifestyle.  For example, a player with a bankroll of  $10,000 will wager 3% of his bankroll ($300) on each play given.  When a 4% play is given, the $10,000 bettor will wager $400.  It does not matter what amount you set, only that you set an amount and stick to the plan.  This point cannot be emphasized enough. 

Don’t worry if we get off to a slow start.  Inevitable streaks will occur when wagering on sports.  Do not feel uneasy if we go 2-4 one week.  These weeks will happen.  Just keep in mind the season goal of 55%.  In 2006 I started the season off 0-2 in the NFL and 4-5 in College.  I was 121-88 for 57.9% the rest of the season.  The point here is that a rough patch is statistically inevitable in a large sample size and you never know when it will occur.  For this reason it is important to maintain discipline.

I will be offering a seasonal package as well as monthly options.  I strongly encourage the full season package as over time it will be the most cost effective option.  The lines I offer will be widely available at the time of release. 

This article is intended to provide you with the background so that you know each and every week you will be getting highly researched plays that have been generated using systems and models that are backed by both historical and statistical data that has shown to be profitable over time.  This methodology has proven to be successful in the past and I have confidence that it will continue to be profitable in the future.      

You can expect roughly 75-125 plays for the season in college football and between 50-75 in the NFL.  There will not be many plays the first week or two of the season, as many of my systems need at the very least 1 game to be played.  I do not handicap the preseason. 

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© Intelllisports, LLC 2007